According to new data from the CDC, the 2025-2026 kindergarten vaccination rates ticked down again, and the share of school-age children with exemptions rose to an all-time high. This has happened despite the ongoing measles outbreak in the USA, in which most of the children who contracted the deadly and dangerous disease were unvaccinated.

If you need a marker for the successes of HHS Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr upending and damaging the US vaccine system, this is it. He has done everything to sow doubt in the safety and effectiveness

This drop in the 2025-2026 national average exemption rate marks the fourth consecutive year the rate has declined. The vast majority of exemptions are from parents refusing vaccines for their children for nonmedical reasons.

This post will examine this new data to show how troubling the 2025-2026 school vaccination rates are.

CDC data on 2025-2026 school vaccination rates

Here are some of the key data points from the CDC report:

• Exemptions from vaccine requirements rose to 4.2%, up from 3.6% in 2024-25.
• An estimated 155,000 children nationally received exemptions during the 2025-26 school year.
• 92.4% of 2025-26 kindergarteners received the required MMR vaccine, down slightly from the 2024-25 school year. Before the COVID pandemic, the MMR vaccination rate was 95%, the level that provides herd immunity to the community.
• 92.4% received the polio vaccine, also down slightly from the 2024-25 school year.
• 92.0% received the DTaP vaccine (for diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis), also down slightly from the 2024-25 school year.
• 93.4% received one dose of the varicella vaccine (for chickenpox), down 0.6% from the 2024-25 school year.
• 92.2% received two doses of the varicella vaccine, up slightly from the 2024-25 school year.
• 94.0% received the hepatitis B vaccine, the same level as in the 2024-25 school year. This is probably because babies receive the vaccine at birth. Also, the changes in ACIP’s recommendations to “shared clinical decision-making” could cause the vaccination rate to drop significantly.
• The non-medical exemption rate increased from 3.4% in 2024-25 to 4.0%. This rate was also more than double the 1.9% rate during the 2020-21 school year.
• Exemptions vary widely by state. For example, California has a non-medical exemption rate of nearly 0%, because of strict laws mandating vaccines for school-age children. On the other hand, Idaho has a 17% non-medical exemption rate, and Utah (which is experiencing a severe measles outbreak) has a 12.2% non-medical exemption rate.

Summary

I know many of. you will say that this isn’t so bad with just small decreases in the school vaccination rate for 2025-2026. But the trendline is going in the wrong direction, and with further attacks on the US vaccine system, the non-medical exemption rate will increase and the vaccination rate will drop for key vaccines.

Moreover, the current vaccination rate in many areas for these key vaccines has dropped below the 95% level which is necessary for community protection against dangerous vaccine-preventable diseases.

I am worried that the data for the 2026-27 school year will be much worse, especially in red states, where anti-vaccine sentiment is the highest. Many states, like Connecticut, California, and New York, have strict rules about school vaccine mandates.

So, the news wasn’t as bad as I was thinking, but it’s still bad. The trendlines are going in the wrong dirrection.

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