A new study shows that the HPV vaccine has reduced cervical cancer mortality since its recommendation for young women in 2006. This is more evidence that the HPV vaccine is very effective in reducing the incidence of and deaths from cervical cancer.

Despite the claims of anti-vaxxers, like Robert F Kennedy Jr, scientific evidence shows that the HPV vaccine is highly effective and safe, especially in preventing cervical cancer. And this new study just adds to that body of evidence.

This post will review the new study, giving you more data to support your discussions about the HPV vaccine.

HPV and the HPV vaccines

I know I cut and paste this section into every article I write about HPV vaccines, but it’s the first step to HPV vaccine myth debunking. Some readers may be coming here for the first time and should know how the HPV vaccine lowers cancer risks. 

However, I try to update this section when necessary with new information about either the disease or the vaccine. If you’ve read this section 47 times, skip to the next section where I discuss the key points of this article.

Genital and oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are the most common sexually transmitted infections (STI) in the USA.  HPV is generally transmitted from personal contact during vaginal, anal, or oral sex.

It’s important to note that there are more than 150 strains or subtypes of HPV that can infect humans – however, only 40 of these strains are linked to one or more different cancers. Of those 40 strains, most are fairly rare.

Although the early symptoms of HPV infections aren’t serious and many HPV infections resolve themselves without long-term harm, HPV infections are causally linked to many types of cancers in men and women. According to current medical research, here are some of the cancers that are linked to HPV:

• Cervical cancer
• Vulvar cancer
• Vaginal cancer
• Anal cancer
• Oropharyngeal cancer (throat cancer)
• Penile cancer

In addition, there is some evidence that HPV infections are causally linked to skin and prostate cancers. The link to skin cancer is still preliminary, but there is much stronger evidence that HPV is linked to many prostate cancers.

HPV is believed to cause nearly 5% of all new cancers across the world, making it almost as dangerous as tobacco in that respect. According to published research, roughly 42 million persons in the USA are infected with disease-associated HPV, and 13 million persons acquire a new infection each year. Most individuals don’t even know they have the infection until the onset of cancer. The CDC states that over 37,000 HPV-related cancers are diagnosed in the USA every year. It is probably several times that amount worldwide.

There were two HPV vaccines on the world market before 2014. GSK, also known as GlaxoSmithKline, produced Cervarix, a bivalent (protects against two HPV strains) vaccine. It has been withdrawn from the US market (although available in many other markets), because of the competition from the quadrivalent (immunizes against four different HPV strains) and 9-valent (against nine HPV strains) Gardasil vaccines.

Merck manufactures Gardasil, probably the most popular HPV vaccine in the world. The first version of the vaccine, quadrivalent Gardasil, targets the two HPV genotypes known to cause about 70% of cervical cancer and two other HPV genotypes that cause genital warts. In Europe and other markets, Gardasil is known as Silgard.

The newer Gardasil 9, approved by the FDA in 2014, is a 9-valent vaccine, that protects against HPV types 6, 11, 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. It targets the four HPV strains found in the quadrivalent version, along with five additional ones that are linked to cervical and other HPV-related cancers. Both versions of Gardasil are prophylactic, meant to be given to females or males before they become exposed to possible HPV infection through intimate contact.

Gardasil is one of the easiest and best ways to prevent a few dangerous and, to abuse the definition slightly, common cancers that afflict men and women. Without a doubt, the HPV vaccine prevents cancer.

In the United States, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) currently recommends that preteen girls and boys aged 11 or 12 receive the HPV vaccine. The HPV vaccine is also recommended for teenage girls and young women up to the age of 26 who did not receive it when they were younger, and boys and young men up to the age of 21.

Let me sum this up so you get this summary if you leave this section with nothing else. HPV is a sexually transmitted disease. HPV causes 37,000 cancers a year in the USA alone. The HPV vaccine prevents one from becoming infected by HPV, which means you are protected from these cancers.

HPV vaccine and cervical cancer paper

In a paper published on 27 November 2024 in JAMA, Ashish A Deshmukh, PhD, MPH, Department of Public Health Sciences, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, and colleagues used data from the National Center for Health Statistics to examine cervical cancer deaths in three-year blocks of time.

The key results were:

• Between 1992 and 2021, there were 398 cervical cancer deaths reported among a cohort of women younger than 25.
• From 1992 to 1994 to 2013-15, mortality from cervical cancer declined by 3.7% each year.
• From 2013-15 to 2019-21 there was a greater drop of 15.2% annually.
• The number of deaths in the cohort decreased from 55 in 1992-94 to 35 in 2013-15 to 13 in 2019-21.
• There was a 12% per year decline (overall, 65% reduction) in cervical cancer incidence from 2012-19 to 2022-23 among US women younger than 25 years.
• There has been a 62% reduction in cervical cancer deaths in young women since 2006 when the HPV vaccine was first available in the USA.

Summary

The American Cancer Society has estimated that about 13,820 cervical cancer cases will be diagnosed in 2024, with about 4,360 deaths predicted. Globally, cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in both incidence and mortality in women, and the leading cause of cancer death in 37 countries.

To be fair, cervical cancer mortality rates were decreasing before the availability of the HPV vaccine. However, it appears once the HPV vaccine became available, the decline in cervical cancer incidence and mortality dropped even faster.

I know that we shouldn’t conflate correlation (which was established in this study) with causation, but there is a solid case for a causal link between the HPV vaccine and cervical cancer:

1. There was a consistent effect across different populations of women.
2. It is biologically plausible that the HPV vaccine prevents cervical cancer since HPV causes most cervical cancers.
3. There was a greater drop in cervical cancer incidence and mortality in the cohort of women who received the vaccine.

I get questions all the time about when we will get a cancer vaccine. Although there are various ones in development, they are mostly for treating cancer, not preventing it. The HPV vaccine is an actual, here today vaccine that prevents cancer.

The HPV vaccine is recommended for girls, boys, women, and men. Get it to prevent cancer.

Citations

• Dorali P, Damgacioglu H, Clarke MA, Wentzensen N, Orr BC, Sonawane K, Deshmukh AA. Cervical Cancer Mortality Among US Women Younger Than 25 Years, 1992-2021. JAMA. 2024 Nov 27. doi: 10.1001/jama.2024.22169. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 39602175.